Development Path Change

The interactive model below was developed through the Meeting the Climate Change Challenge (MC3) project, and it serves as a step toward better understanding changes in development paths. It does this by exploring change through three theoretical lenses – multi-level perspective (MLP), social practice theory (SPT), and social-ecological systems (SES). It then integrates these perspectives to illustrate how each theory complements one another and ultimately provides a more comprehensive picture of how different forms of change occur.

Click on the questions below to expand their respective sections and learn more.

The model was developed using Unity 3D, and requires a web player plugin for viewing and interacting. If you do not have the plugin, click on the button below to download and install. The model is best viewed using Safari or Mozilla.

Once the plugin has been installed and you can see the model, click on it to start interacting with it. Use the arrow keys to control the model and view it from different angles. Click the spacebar to reset the model to its original position.

You can download a desktop version of the model to view and interact with it offline by clicking the appropriate link here – download Windows version or download Mac OS version. The controls for the model are the same as described above (i.e., arrow keys and spacebar). When opening the desktop application, check the ‘Windowed’ before clicking the ‘Play!’ button for best visual quality.

MLP is depicted as blue circle. The components of MLP are arranged as a hierarchal system consisting of niche (local), regime (provincial and national), and landscape (global) levels. SPT is displayed as an orange circle, and it is oriented at a right angle from the MLP circle. It consists of spectrum ranging from emergent practices (i.e., practices perform by singular people) to practice complexes (i.e., matured systems of intertwined actions, developed through co-evolution and guided by norms). SES is displayed in two interlinked green loops, and it is oriented at a 45 degree angle from both the MLP and SPT circles. The loops represent the adaptive cycle and its four stages – growth, conservation, release and reorganization (or renewal).

The model is dynamic, and the movement of the spheres illustrate the interplay between MLP, STP, and SES. The sphere paths intersect at two points in the model, and each intersection represents a different form of multi-scalar interaction.

The first intersection depicts a situation where innovation from the niche level influences the landscape and regime levels. On approach to the intersection, innovative practices that are outside the normative systems of practices are being developed (i.e., STP circle) and occurring at the niche level (i.e., MLP circle). At intersection 1, these practices gain enough buy-in and momentum for the niche level to exert an influence on the regime and/or social technical landscape. This leads to a systems shift, where the system enters a release phase and then a reorganization phase (i.e., adaptive cycle loops) as new practice complexes form.

The second intersection depicts landscape and regime influences on local (or niche levels). On approach to the intersection, normative systems of practices have developed (i.e., STP circle) and have been institutionalized at regime levels (i.e., MLP circle). At intersection 2, these practices and ‘ways of operating’ guide how local levels develop and move forward. Communities enter a growth phase and move toward a conservation phase (i.e., adaptive cycle loops), as certain development directions and strategies become commonplace. In is important to note that the STP sphere moves toward individual practices as communities move from growth to conservation. This initially might seem counterintuitive, as normative ways of operating are guiding development and thus systems of practice are established at this stage. However, what this actually represents is the emergence of innovation as discussed above, meaning there is a strong set of normative practices in place and thus innovation occurring outside this norm is being driven by individuals (and small groups of individuals).

It is important to note that the model simplifies systems dynamics, and the reality is that the sphere movement would not necessarily occur at such consistent intervals and directions. In addition, systems are much more complex, and as in panarchy, the model could actually be represented through a series of linked cycles and loops. However, the purpose of developing the model was to provide a clear analytical direction for developing a theory of change, and thus some simplification was required.

The areas of the model that are of most interest are the intersections. Interrogating these intersections can elucidate how interactions between various actors, actions, systems, and scales can orient a community and/or society toward a certain development path and forms of change. In addition, the two intersections represents different arrangements of interactions occurring in different ‘directions’ (i.e., ‘top-down’ or ‘bottom-up’) , which potentially could lead to understanding around both sides of the change spectrum. More specifically speaking, intersection 1 might illuminate what leads to transformative change; whereas, intersection 2 might provide insights on what maintains paths of incremental change.

Model developed by Rob Newell, Research Curator, Meeting the Climate Change Challenge (MC3), and Doctoral Candidate, University of Victoria